Xeris Biopharma Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $9.56Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $1.7B Enterprise Value $1.9B Shares Outstanding 188.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date1 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Xeris Biopharma has reached a critical operational and financial inflection point, transitioning from a cash-burning development-stage biotech into a self-funding, profitable specialty pharmaceutical platform. The company achieved GAAP profitability in Q1 2026, driven by explosive growth in its Cushing's syndrome therapy, Recorlev, which nearly doubled its net product revenue year-over-year. With a robust commercial portfolio (Recorlev, Gvoke, Keveyis) generating high-margin recurring cash flows, Xeris is well-positioned to internally fund its late-stage pipeline, specifically the Phase 3 development of its once-weekly subcutaneous levothyroxine candidate, XP-8121. Despite near-term headwinds in the Gvoke Medicare channel and generic litigation challenges for Recorlev, the company's strong commercial execution, raised FY2026 guidance, and long-term patent protections (extending Keveyis to 2039 and Recorlev to 2040) present an asymmetric risk-reward profile with substantial valuation upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.00 Mean target$11.29 High · most bullish analyst$18.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.0015% Gvoke's Medicare channel headwinds intensify, leading to a contraction in its revenue base. Recorlev's growth slows down due to competitive pressures or execution friction in the expanded sales force. The Hatch-Waxman litigation results in an unfavorable settlement or ruling, pulling forward generic competition for Recorlev before 2040. XP-8121's Phase 3 trial faces clinical delays or safety signals, increasing cash burn and delaying its projected 2028 launch. EBITDA margins compress due to rising commercialization and clinical trial costs. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.2960% Matches the consensus meanXeris delivers on its tightened FY2026 revenue guidance of $380M-$390M, representing over 30% growth at the midpoint. Recorlev remains the primary growth engine, offsetting flat-to-modest growth in Gvoke. Keveyis remains a stable cash contributor protected by its newly allowed patent through 2039. XP-8121 enters Phase 3 in late 2026, with R&D and SG&A expenses rising in line with management's guidance. The company maintains positive GAAP net income and continues to generate positive free cash flow, steadily reducing its debt obligations. Bull CaseUpside scenario $18.0025% Recorlev commercial expansion accelerates faster than expected in H2 2026 following the near-doubling of the sales force to 80 reps, capturing a larger share of the hypercortisolemia market. Gvoke successfully overcomes Medicare out-of-pocket headwinds to resume double-digit growth. XP-8121 initiates Phase 3 on schedule with rapid enrollment, validating its $1B-$3B peak sales potential. The company successfully defends its Recorlev patents against ANDA filers, securing exclusivity through 2040. Operating leverage drives EBITDA margins toward 25%, and the company achieves net-cash status ahead of schedule. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |