Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryLodging Beta (adjusted)0.75 Intrinsic Value $75.19median of 6 methods · middle span $56-$99based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $71.84Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.3B Enterprise Value $7.9B Shares Outstanding 74.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: WH) presents a compelling investment opportunity driven by its highly resilient, asset-light franchising model. The company's focus on economy and midscale select-service brands insulates it from corporate travel volatility, while its record-high development pipeline of over 259,000 rooms provides highly visible, long-term net room growth. Despite near-term headwinds from international markets (such as China) and the Revo insolvency, Wyndham's strong free cash flow generation, robust co-branded credit card ancillary fees, and aggressive deployment of agentic AI technology (e.g., Wyndham Connect) position it to deliver superior shareholder returns and steady margin expansion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$80.00 Mean target$97.88 High · most bullish analyst$115.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $80.00 A broader macroeconomic slowdown severely dampens U.S. leisure travel, causing domestic RevPAR to turn negative. Deflationary pressures in China persist, and international RevPAR continues to drag down global performance. The integration and stabilization of foreclosed Revo properties prove more costly than expected, leading to operational inefficiencies and margin compression. Net leverage rises toward the upper limit of 4.0x, limiting capital return to shareholders. Base CaseCentral scenario $97.88 Matches the consensus meanWyndham successfully delivers on its 2026 outlook, achieving net room growth of 4.0% to 4.5% and global RevPAR growth of -1% to +1%. Ancillary revenues continue to grow at a low-to-mid-teens rate, supported by the co-branded credit card agreement. The company stabilizes the foreclosed European properties from the Revo insolvency, keeping the EBITDA impact within guided ranges. Free cash flow conversion remains strong at 55% to 60%, supporting the $0.43 quarterly dividend and steady buybacks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $115.00 Accelerated domestic leisure travel recovery combined with rapid expansion of the ECHO Suites extended-stay brand drives net room growth above the high end of guidance. Agentic AI tools (Wyndham Connect PLUS) achieve rapid adoption, significantly lowering franchisee operating costs and driving higher direct bookings, which boosts co-branded credit card and ancillary revenues. Net leverage falls toward the lower end of the 3.0x-4.0x target, enabling aggressive share repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |