Workday, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Workday, Inc.

WDAYNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)1.02

Intrinsic Value $286.56median of 6 methods · middle span $222-$323based on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $190.46Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 50% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+50%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $45.9B

Enterprise Value $48.2B

Shares Outstanding 248.1M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Workday exited fiscal 2027 Q2 with resilient subscription growth, expanding non-GAAP operating margin, and meaningful early commercialization of agentic AI. Subscription revenue increased 13.9%, 12-month backlog increased 14.2%, and AI generated more than 25% of new annual contract value. The counterweight is deceleration in total backlog growth to 8.0%, substantial execution requirements around AI monetization and acquired products, and an official share price already reflecting part of the improving outlook. The resulting risk-reward supports a Hold rather than an aggressive accumulation recommendation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets39 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$92.00

Mean target$176.12

High · most bullish analyst$275.00

Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$92.0020%

Total-backlog growth slows further, AI-agent adoption fails to translate into durable incremental subscription growth, and competition or implementation challenges pressure renewals and expansion. Margin protection then requires investment restraint that weakens product momentum, producing multiple compression.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$176.1255%

Matches the consensus mean

Subscription revenue tracks the company's fiscal 2027 guidance, near-term backlog remains healthy while total-backlog growth moderates, and non-GAAP margin holds around the raised 31% objective. AI contributes to expansion without yet reaccelerating overall growth materially.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$275.0025%

AI remains above one-quarter of new annual contract value, adoption continues expanding from the reported 5,500-agent-customer base, 12-month backlog growth remains in the mid-teens, and operating leverage persists above the raised 31% full-year non-GAAP margin objective. Strong execution supports renewed confidence in durable growth and a higher valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal 2027 Q2 subscription revenue grew 13.9%, while 12-month subscription backlog grew 14.2%, supporting near-term revenue visibility.
Non-GAAP operating margin reached 31.1%, and management raised fiscal 2027 margin guidance to 31.0%, demonstrating operating leverage alongside continued AI investment.
AI represented more than 25% of new annual contract value, and more than 5,500 customers used at least one organic Workday agent, providing tangible evidence of commercial adoption.

Key Investment Risks

Total subscription-revenue-backlog growth slowed to 8.0%, materially below 12-month-backlog growth and a warning that longer-duration demand should be monitored closely.
Workday identifies competitive pressure, rapid technological change, AI regulation, cybersecurity, service availability, partner dependence, and uncertain acquisition benefits as material sources of execution risk.
The official $204.72 share price leaves a narrower margin of safety relative to the independently estimated base-case target than would support a Buy recommendation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.