Woodward Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Woodward Inc

WWDNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)0.92

Intrinsic Value $307.04median of 6 methods · middle span $212-$528based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $328.59Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $19.4B

Enterprise Value $19.7B

Shares Outstanding 61.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date27 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Woodward entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with strong operating momentum: third-quarter sales increased 21%, adjusted EPS increased 43%, and both Aerospace and Industrial expanded margins. Management retained 20%-23% full-year sales-growth guidance and raised adjusted EPS guidance to $9.30-$9.50.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$420.00

Mean target$450.36

High · most bullish analyst$502.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$420.0020%

Supply-chain constraints, inflation, unfavorable mix, customer production changes or integration and facility-ramp difficulties cause fiscal sales growth to fall below 20%, adjusted EPS to fall below $9.30 or free cash flow to fall below $300 million. Higher capital spending and debt reduce flexibility if demand slows.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$450.3655%

Matches the consensus mean

Woodward delivers within its fiscal 2026 framework: sales growth of 20%-23%, adjusted EPS of $9.30-$9.50, free cash flow of $300-$350 million, Aerospace margin near 23.5% and Industrial margin near 19%. Commercial aerospace production and aftermarket activity remain constructive, while broad Industrial demand offsets normal mix, inflation and investment costs.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$502.0025%

Demand and production execution remain stronger than management's revised outlook: full-year sales growth reaches or exceeds the 23% upper end, adjusted EPS exceeds $9.50, and free cash flow remains at least $300 million. Aerospace benefits from higher aircraft production and resilient services, while Industrial benefits from transportation, power-generation and oil-and-gas demand. Recent capacity additions improve throughput without material execution disruption.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong and broad-based momentum: third-quarter fiscal 2026 sales increased 21% and adjusted EPS increased 43%, while year-to-date sales and adjusted EPS increased 24% and 45%, respectively.
Aerospace has complementary growth drivers: third-quarter commercial OEM sales increased 34%, commercial-services sales increased 24%, and segment margin reached 24.0%.
Industrial execution improved materially: third-quarter sales increased 26%, segment earnings increased 86%, and segment margin expanded to 22.1%.
Capacity investments support long-term demand, including a completed Glatten expansion that increased high-speed fuel-injection-system production capacity by 50%.

Key Investment Risks

Cash conversion is being tested by investment requirements: year-to-date capital expenditures nearly doubled to $156 million, while third-quarter free cash flow declined 12%; fiscal 2026 capital-expenditure guidance is approximately $290 million.
Financial flexibility requires monitoring because total debt reached $1.342 billion and EBITDA leverage was 1.6 times at June 30, 2026, while year-to-date repurchases totaled $553 million.
Aerospace profitability remains exposed to inflation, unfavorable mix and strategic manufacturing investments, all of which management identified as partial offsets to volume leverage and pricing.
Growth initiatives introduce execution risk, including integration of Valve Research & Manufacturing and construction and ramp-up of the approximately $200 million South Carolina actuation facility.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.