Woodside Energy Group Ltd ADR Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.18 Intrinsic Value $17.61median of 6 methods · middle span $16-$51based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $22.17Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $42.1B Enterprise Value $47.6B Shares Outstanding 1.9B diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend6 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Woodside enters the second half of 2026 with solid operating performance and three visible growth milestones: Scarborough is over 98% complete and targeting first LNG in Q4 2026, Trion is 64% complete and targeting first oil in 2028, and Louisiana LNG is 28% complete and targeting first LNG in 2029. These milestones provide meaningful production-growth potential, but they also concentrate the investment case on timely commissioning and construction execution across multiple large projects. The balance between near-term Scarborough upside and continuing Trion and Louisiana execution risk supports a Hold rather than a more directional recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.21 Mean target$23.21 High · most bullish analyst$23.21 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.2123% Scarborough commissioning slips beyond 2026, or Trion and Louisiana LNG schedules deteriorate, delaying expected portfolio growth. Concurrently weaker realised commodity prices would reduce the operating support available while Woodside advances its construction program. Base CaseCentral scenario $23.2158% Matches the consensus meanScarborough achieves first LNG around its Q4 2026 target, while Trion continues toward first oil in 2028 and Louisiana LNG progresses toward first cargo in 2029. Existing operations remain broadly reliable, but investors continue to require an execution-risk discount while the major projects are completed. Bull CaseUpside scenario $23.2119% Scarborough delivers first LNG in Q4 2026 and ramps reliably, while Trion and Louisiana LNG remain on their stated schedules. Continued strong operating reliability and orderly commissioning would improve confidence that Woodside can convert its project pipeline into sustained production and LNG growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |