Wolverine World Wide Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryFootwear & Accessories Beta (adjusted)1.49 Intrinsic Value $29.75median of 6 methods · middle span $16-$36based on filings through 4 Jul 2026 Market Price $19.11Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 56% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+56%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.6B Enterprise Value $2B Shares Outstanding 82.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Wolverine World Wide is executing a successful brand-led operational turnaround, driven by strong momentum in its high-margin Active Group brands, Merrell and Saucony. Following a solid Q1 2026 performance that exceeded expectations, management raised its full-year profitability guidance. The stock trades at an attractive forward valuation of approximately 11x NTM P/E, presenting a compelling risk-reward profile as operating leverage begins to materialize and debt is steadily reduced. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$17.00 Mean target$24.00 High · most bullish analyst$31.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $17.0020% The turnaround stalls as consumer discretionary spending slows down. Reinvestment in marketing behind Merrell and Saucony outpaces revenue growth, limiting operating leverage. Additionally, an adverse federal court ruling in the Area 19 PFAS dispute forces expanded cleanup standards, imposing significant unplanned environmental remediation costs that strain the balance sheet. Base CaseCentral scenario $24.0055% Matches the consensus meanManagement successfully executes its turnaround strategy. Active Group continues to grow mid-single digits, while the Work Group stabilizes and remains flat. Adjusted operating margins expand to approximately 9.5% in FY 2026 and progress toward 11.5% over the next five years. Revenue grows at a 5.5% CAGR, leading to an EPS of $2.50 by Year 5. Applying a conservative 13x exit multiple yields the target price. Bull CaseUpside scenario $31.0025% Merrell and Saucony sustain double-digit growth, accelerating international expansion and direct-to-consumer (DTC) mix to 40%. Operating margins expand beyond the 2027/2028 target of 12.5% due to strong pricing power and successful supply chain diversification, which mitigates tariff pressures. Multiple re-rates to historical averages. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |