Wolfspeed Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $28.13Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $1.5B Enterprise Value $2B Shares Outstanding 52M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Wolfspeed has successfully transitioned from a distressed EV supplier to a scarce, vertically integrated AI power infrastructure asset following its Chapter 11 restructuring and subsequent balance sheet repair. The company is the only US-listed pure-play silicon carbide (SiC) manufacturer with commercial-scale 200mm device fabrication. While near-term profitability remains challenged by underutilization at the Mohawk Valley Fab, sequential growth of approximately 30% in AI data center applications, strategic partnerships (such as the GE Aerospace MOU), and the launch of high-voltage 10kV MOSFETs position Wolfspeed to capture high-value secular demand across AI, grid modernization, and automotive markets. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$30.00 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $30.0020% Slower-than-expected EV adoption and prolonged customer inventory corrections keep Mohawk Valley underutilized, resulting in persistent negative gross margins. Intense competition from vertically integrated players (e.g., onsemi, STMicroelectronics) limits market share gains, forcing further dilutive capital raises. Base CaseCentral scenario $30.0050% Matches the consensus meanMohawk Valley Fab utilization steadily improves toward 60% by FY2027, converting negative gross margins to positive contributions. AI data center applications continue to scale sequentially, offsetting near-term softness in the automotive sector. Refinanced debt structure provides sufficient runway to reach cash flow breakeven. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.0030% Accelerated adoption of 800V DC architectures in AI data centers and rapid utilization ramp at the Mohawk Valley Fab drive gross margins positive ahead of schedule. Strong conversion of the $21 billion EV design-in pipeline, combined with government support via the CHIPS Act, fuels a multi-year revenue CAGR exceeding 25%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |