Wix.com Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

Wix.com Ltd

WIXNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Beta (adjusted)0.97

Intrinsic Value $62.10median of 5 methods · middle span $30-$145based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $72.13Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $3B

Shares Outstanding 41.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date18 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Wix.com Ltd. is navigating a pivotal transition in the web-creation space by aggressively integrating proprietary AI technologies (Wix Harmony) and expanding its addressable market into software applications via its high-growth subsidiary Base44. Although the stock experienced a sharp sell-off following a Q1 2026 earnings miss driven by elevated marketing investments and a temporary slowdown in its Partners program, the underlying fundamentals remain robust. The company's successful repurchase of approximately 30% of its outstanding shares via a $1.6 billion tender offer in April 2026 significantly enhances shareholder value. With a strong free cash flow profile, a clear path to controlling AI inference costs through its custom LLM, and a highly depressed valuation trading near its 52-week low, Wix presents an attractive risk-reward profile for long-term investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$50.00

Mean target$76.20

High · most bullish analyst$135.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$45.00

Intensifying competition from AI-native website builders and persistent macro pressure on SMBs lead to a further slowdown in bookings and GPV. Base44's rapid growth causes prolonged margin compression, and the Partners program fails to recover due to delayed product rollouts. High marketing spend fails to yield expected returns, dragging free cash flow margins down to the low-teens and keeping the stock range-bound near its lows.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$76.20

Matches the consensus mean

Wix delivers on its reiterated FY 2026 guidance of mid-teens bookings and revenue growth, supported by steady core cohort performance and Base44 momentum. Free cash flow margin (excluding acquisition costs) stabilizes in the high-teens, and the company successfully manages its AI compute costs. The valuation multiples recover moderately from depressed levels as market concerns over AI headwinds and partner program execution subside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$135.00

Wix Harmony's proprietary LLM successfully drives superior user conversion and monetization while keeping AI inference costs minimal. Base44 continues its hyper-growth trajectory, expanding well beyond $150M ARR and establishing Wix as a dominant player in no-code autonomous AI app development. Partners program growth re-accelerates as Wix Studio marketing efforts resume, driving total revenue and bookings growth above 18% YoY and expanding free cash flow margins back into the mid-20% range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Successful execution of a $1.6 billion tender offer in April 2026, repurchasing ~30% of outstanding shares and significantly boosting pro-forma metrics.
Rapid monetization of Base44, which reached $150 million in ARR in May 2026, expanding the company's TAM into software applications.
Launch of a proprietary custom-built LLM powering Wix Harmony, reducing dependency on third-party models and keeping AI inference costs highly controlled.
Strong cash generation capability, with Q1 2026 free cash flow (excluding acquisition costs) at $112.3 million, representing a healthy 21% of revenue.

Key Investment Risks

Slowdown in the Partners program growth (19% YoY in Q1 2026) due to a deliberate pullback in Studio marketing and delayed product rollouts.
Margin compression risks associated with high-growth subsidiaries and elevated sales and marketing investments.
Macroeconomic headwinds impacting small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), leading to softer Gross Payment Volume (GPV) growth.
Market perception of AI as a headwind to traditional web design platforms, creating valuation overhangs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.