Winnebago Industries Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAutomobile Manufacturers Beta (adjusted)1.08 Intrinsic Value $31.41median of 6 methods · middle span $14-$52based on filings through 30 May 2026 Market Price $26.37Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $745.5M Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 28.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend9 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Winnebago Industries (WGO) is a premium manufacturer of recreational vehicles and marine products navigating a highly cyclical downturn. While the company has demonstrated strong operational execution, premium brand equity, and strategic diversification through acquisitions like Barletta and Chris-Craft, it faces persistent macroeconomic headwinds. High interest rates, elevated dealer inventories, and weakened consumer discretionary spending continue to pressure retail demand. Although recent quarterly earnings have beaten low expectations, segment contractions in towables and marine suggest a cautious near-term outlook, making a Hold recommendation appropriate until industry shipments stabilize and financing costs normalize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$38.00 High · most bullish analyst$73.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.0020% Persistent inflation and elevated interest rates continue to depress consumer confidence, forcing a structural downward reset in long-term RV demand. Dealer destocking intensifies, leading to severe volume deleverage and aggressive promotional discounting. Winnebago's margins contract further, and free cash flows pressure the sustainability of its dividend, leading to multiple compression. Base CaseCentral scenario $39.5055% The RV industry undergoes a gradual, multi-quarter adjustment phase rather than a rapid expansion. Winnebago maintains its consolidated fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $2.8B to $3.0B and manages margins through disciplined cost containment and selective price adjustments. Dealer inventories slowly align with retail demand, and the stock trades in line with historical mid-cycle multiples. Bull CaseUpside scenario $48.0025% A rapid normalization of interest rates by the Federal Reserve improves RV affordability, unlocking pent-up consumer demand. Winnebago leverages its high operational leverage and premium brand positioning to drive significant margin expansion. Market share gains in the high-margin marine segment (Barletta) and successful new product launches (such as the Grand Design Lineage) accelerate top-line growth beyond industry averages. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |