Winmark Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustrySpecialty Retail Beta (adjusted)0.69 Intrinsic Value $281.05median of 5 methods · middle span $265-$333based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $300.19Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Shares Outstanding 3.7M diluted Next Earnings Date13 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Winmark Corporation (WINA) operates a highly profitable, capital-light franchising model focused on sustainable resale retail brands (Plato's Closet, Once Upon A Child, Play It Again Sports, Style Encore, and Music Go Round). With the complete run-off of its equipment leasing portfolio at the end of 2025, Winmark has transitioned into a pure-play franchisor. The company boasts exceptional operating margins (~62%) and a strong balance sheet. However, near-term growth is modest, and the stock trades at a premium valuation (P/E ~32x-36x). The introduction of new franchisee fees in 2026 (Software Fee and Plato's Closet Ad Fund) represents a key operational catalyst to modernize technology and marketing, but also introduces potential friction with franchisees. Given the balanced risk-reward profile, a Hold recommendation is warranted. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$545.00 Mean target$545.00 High · most bullish analyst$545.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential franchisee discontent and litigation surrounding the newly implemented Software Fee and Ad Fund, leading to slower store openings or increased closures. Macroeconomic headwinds could pressure consumer discretionary spending, slowing down resale retail transactions and compressing royalty revenues. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes steady organic expansion of the franchise network, maintaining a 100% renewal rate. The monthly Software Fee (starting Sept 2026) and Plato's Closet Ad Fund (starting July 2026) are successfully integrated without significant franchisee pushback, driving long-term operational efficiencies and brand equity. Royalty revenues grow at a mid-single-digit rate, offsetting the loss of historical leasing income. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |