Willis Towers Watson PLC Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance Brokers Beta (adjusted)0.60 Intrinsic Value $281.61median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $288.23Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $26.8B Enterprise Value $31.7B Shares Outstanding 94M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary WTW entered the second half of 2026 with 5% quarterly organic growth, 100 basis points of adjusted operating-margin expansion, 17% adjusted EPS growth and materially improved first-half free cash flow. Propel raises the long-term operating ambition to an approximately 30% adjusted margin in 2028, but that target requires substantial additional execution from the 25.2% full-year 2025 margin and introduces implementation risk around AI, automation and organizational change. The balance of durable advisory and brokerage demand, operating leverage and capital returns against execution, macroeconomic and acquisition-integration risks supports a Hold rather than a more aggressive recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$303.00 Mean target$374.74 High · most bullish analyst$406.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $280.0020% Organic growth falls below 4%, brokerage pricing and discretionary consulting demand weaken, and Newfront integration or Propel implementation costs absorb expected efficiencies. Margin expansion stalls near prior-year levels and weaker cash conversion reduces capital-return flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $374.7455% Matches the consensus meanOrganic growth remains near 5%, margins continue expanding at a measured pace, and Propel advances toward—but does not reach early—the 2028 objective. Cash-flow improvement and repurchases support per-share growth, while implementation and macroeconomic risks constrain multiple expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $450.0025% Organic growth accelerates to 6%-7%, Newfront strengthens Risk & Broking without material integration disruption, and Propel delivers savings quickly enough to put the approximately 30% 2028 margin objective clearly within reach. Sustained double-digit adjusted EPS growth and strong cash conversion support a premium outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |