White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty Beta (adjusted)0.53 Intrinsic Value $2,238.49median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $2,006.49Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.8B Enterprise Value $5.6B Shares Outstanding 2.4M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary White Mountains Insurance Group (WTM) operates as a unique financial services holding company, combining specialty insurance underwriting with active capital allocation. Under the newly appointed CEO Liam Caffrey, the company continues to focus on growing its book value per share over time. While core operating businesses like Ark and Kudu are performing solidly, near-term performance remains highly sensitive to mark-to-market fluctuations in its public equity holdings, particularly MediaAlpha. With a substantial undeployed capital buffer of $0.8 billion, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunistic acquisitions, but current valuation multiples fairly reflect this balanced profile of steady operating cash flows and investment volatility. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case is triggered by severe catastrophe losses at Ark, a prolonged softening of the reinsurance market, and further write-downs in the carrying value of MediaAlpha. Poor execution or overpaying for new acquisitions under the new management team could also erode book value. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes steady underwriting profitability at Ark with a combined ratio in the low-90s, continued growth in fee-based income from Kudu and Distinguished Programs, and disciplined deployment of the $0.8 billion in undeployed capital. Book value per share is expected to grow at a moderate pace, offset occasionally by volatility in the public equity portfolio. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |