Where Food Comes From Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryResearch and Consulting Services Beta (adjusted)0.40 Intrinsic Value $9.74median of 6 methods · middle span $8-$12based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $11.05Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $55M Enterprise Value $52.4M Shares Outstanding 5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend26 Jul 2021 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Where Food Comes From, Inc. (WFCF) is a leading third-party food verification provider in North America, supporting over 17,500 stakeholders. While the company benefits from long-term secular trends toward food transparency, organic standards, and sustainability, its near-term financial performance remains heavily pressured by cyclical headwinds in the beef industry, specifically record-low U.S. cattle herd sizes. Although WFCF returned to profitability in Q1 2026 with a net income of $92,000, gross margins declined to 39% due to rising insurance and personnel costs. The successful launch and adoption of RaiseWell Certified by Whole Foods Market represents a strong growth catalyst, but persistent agricultural headwinds and a recently disclosed material weakness in internal controls over financial reporting warrant a cautious Hold stance until top-line growth stabilizes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case assumes prolonged contraction in U.S. cattle supplies, persistent high tariffs, and further packing plant closures that disrupt key verification programs. Additionally, failure to swiftly remediate the identified material weakness in internal controls could lead to increased compliance costs and damage investor confidence, dragging the stock down toward key support levels. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes a gradual recovery in the cattle cycle over the next 12-24 months, paired with steady adoption of the RaiseWell Certified standard. Revenue is expected to grow modestly in the low single digits as non-beef verification streams offset beef-related softness. Operating margins are projected to stabilize around 5-6% as executive management maintains disciplined cost controls. Bull CaseUpside scenario Successful scaling of non-beef certifications (such as Organic, non-GMO, and Upcycled Certified) and new value-added programs like RaiseWell and CARE Certified sustainable leather with Pangea/Walmart offsets cyclical headwinds in the U.S. cattle industry, driving margin expansion and market share gains. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |