Weyerhaeuser Co Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Specialty Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $28.16median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $19.05Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 48% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.7B Enterprise Value $19B Shares Outstanding 720.1M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Weyerhaeuser offers material long-term optionality through a quantified plan to add $1.5 billion of Adjusted EBITDA by 2030, including approximately $250 million of annual Climate Solutions Adjusted EBITDA. The plan is diversified across Wood Products, Strategic Land Solutions, enterprise initiatives and Timberlands, while the company retains a framework targeting annual shareholder returns equal to 75%-80% of Adjusted FAD. The investment case nevertheless depends on multi-year execution and includes $500 million of assumed product-pricing improvement. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$28.00 Mean target$31.27 High · most bullish analyst$38.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $28.0020% Growth projects are delayed or produce lower returns than planned, and the $500 million product-pricing component of the 2030 target does not materialize. Climate Solutions scales more slowly than expected, limiting diversification, while weaker Adjusted FAD reduces the capacity for supplemental dividends or repurchases beyond the base dividend. Base CaseCentral scenario $31.2755% Matches the consensus meanThe company makes measurable but uneven progress toward its 2030 targets, with execution benefits partly offset by variable product pricing and the timing of land and climate-related projects. The base dividend and broader 75%-80% Adjusted FAD return framework remain intact. Bull CaseUpside scenario $38.0025% Weyerhaeuser delivers the identified $1 billion of growth initiatives and realizes the additional $500 million product-pricing contribution contemplated in its 2030 plan. Wood Products supplies the largest identified uplift, while Strategic Land Solutions and Climate Solutions become more meaningful earnings contributors. Successful execution supports stronger cash generation and continued distributions under the Adjusted FAD return framework. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |