Weyco Group Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $28.89median of 6 methods · middle span $24-$60based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $48.41Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $462.4M Enterprise Value $368.7M Shares Outstanding 9.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend19 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Weyco Group Inc. (WEYS) exhibits strong balance sheet health with zero debt and robust cash generation, highlighted by a recent 4% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.28 per share and a $2.00 special dividend paid in early 2026. However, top-line growth remains flat at $68.0 million for Q1 2026, with mixed brand performance as growth in Florsheim is offset by declines in Stacy Adams and BOGS. While the invalidation of the IEEPA incremental tariffs by the Supreme Court removes a major margin headwind and opens the door for up to $18.6 million in potential tariff refunds, near-term retail demand remains cautious, justifying a Hold rating until top-line momentum resumes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Retailer destocking intensifies, causing deeper declines in Stacy Adams and Nunn Bush. Sourcing shifts away from China face execution delays, and the recovery of paid tariffs is delayed indefinitely in the Court of International Trade, compressing margins and dragging down valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario The company maintains flat to low-single-digit revenue growth as wholesale channels remain conservative. Gross margins gradually recover toward historical averages of 45% as tariff pressures subside following the Supreme Court ruling. Operating cash flows remain strong, supporting the regular dividend. Bull CaseUpside scenario Weyco Group presents a compelling value opportunity driven by a robust balance sheet with over $90 million in cash and zero debt, which significantly limits downside risk. Profitability is expanding through operational restructuring, cost reductions, and the winding down of unprofitable brands, leading to margin expansion and strong cash flow generation (Q1 2026 operating cash flow surged 322% to $17.4 million). Additionally, the company has submitted claims for $18.6 million in tariff refunds following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, representing a substantial near-term capital catalyst. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |