Western Midstream Partners LP Dossier - Source-backed chat

Western Midstream Partners LP

WESNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Midstream

Beta (adjusted)0.80

Intrinsic Value $61.32median of 5 methods · middle span $36-$179based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $44.37Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $18.3B

Enterprise Value $25.9B

Shares Outstanding 413.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Western Midstream entered the second half of 2026 with record quarterly Adjusted EBITDA, sequential growth in natural-gas and produced-water throughput, and upwardly revised full-year guidance. The completed Brazos Delaware acquisition, new Powder River Basin agreements, scheduled 2027 projects, and participation in the Solitude Pipeline System provide additional growth avenues. The counterbalance is elevated capital spending near the top of guidance, execution and integration requirements, dependence on producer activity and commodity-sensitive contract contributions, and long-dated project approvals.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$41.00

Mean target$47.42

High · most bullish analyst$55.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$41.0019%

Customer activity or commodity-sensitive processing contributions weaken, Brazos Delaware integration benefits fall short, or project spending exceeds guidance. Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.750 billion, capital expenditures exceed $1.0 billion, or key 2027 projects are delayed, reducing confidence in distribution growth and the expected 2027 throughput step-up.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$47.4258%

Matches the consensus mean

Results remain within revised 2026 guidance, natural-gas throughput grows at the indicated mid-single-digit rate, capital expenditures remain within the $850 million to $1.0 billion range, and at least $3.70 per unit is paid during calendar 2026. Growth projects progress on schedule while integration and spending limit near-term upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$55.0023%

Adjusted EBITDA, distributable cash flow, and free cash flow reach the upper portions of revised 2026 guidance as Brazos Delaware integration, Delaware Basin activity, produced-water growth, and fixed-recovery processing contributions outperform. Pathfinder and North Loving II remain on schedule, the Powder River agreements support 2027 volumes, and Solitude strengthens long-term Permian residue takeaway.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $736.5 million, up 19% year over year, and management raised the midpoint of full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance by 10%.
Natural-gas throughput attributable to WES increased 3% sequentially to 5,343 MMcf/d, while produced-water throughput attributable to WES increased 5% to 2,939 MBbls/d.
Brazos Delaware added approximately 460 MMcf/d of processing capacity, new Powder River Basin agreements added approximately 270,000 dedicated acres, and the 7.5%-owned Solitude project adds a long-term Permian takeaway option.

Key Investment Risks

Management expects 2026 capital expenditures near the high end of the $850 million to $1.0 billion range, increasing sensitivity to project costs and execution.
The revised outlook depends partly on successful Brazos Delaware integration, sustained customer activity, elevated commodity prices, and timely completion of Pathfinder and North Loving II.
Solitude is a long-dated development subject to customary regulatory and other approvals, with initial service not expected until the second half of 2029.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.