Western Digital Corporation Dossier - Source-backed chat

Western Digital Corporation

WDCNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Beta (adjusted)1.79

Intrinsic Value $911.88median of 6 methods · middle span $77-$3,040based on filings through 3 Apr 2026

Market Price $454.46Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 101% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+101%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $163.9B

Enterprise Value $163.3B

Shares Outstanding 383M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend8 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

WD enters FY2027 with strong operating momentum: FY2026 revenue rose 36%, Q4 revenue rose 44%, Q4 non-GAAP gross margin reached 54.4%, and management guided Q1 FY2027 revenue to USD 4.0B-4.2B with a 55%-56% non-GAAP gross margin. Its technology roadmap provides additional upside through 40TB UltraSMR volume production planned for the second half of 2026, HAMR production targeted for 2027, and a longer-term path toward 100TB drives. However, the investment remains exposed to HDD demand volatility, customer concentration, qualification timing, competitive pricing, supply constraints and execution risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets24 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$420.00

Mean target$662.13

High · most bullish analyst$1,050.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$420.0020%

Revenue, margin or EPS falls below guidance because of demand volatility, weaker pricing, customer-order timing, supply disruption or qualification delays. Slippage in the 40TB UltraSMR or HAMR roadmap would weaken the capacity-led growth case.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$662.1356%

Matches the consensus mean

WD delivers near its Q1 FY2027 guidance, sustains materially improved profitability and progresses its 40TB and HAMR qualifications without major disruption. Growth moderates from FY2026's exceptional pace while demand and technology-execution risks remain manageable.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,050.0024%

Revenue and margins exceed the Q1 FY2027 guidance ranges as AI and cloud storage demand remains strong, 40TB UltraSMR production ramps on schedule, and customer adoption supports further operating leverage.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

FY2026 revenue increased 36% to USD 12.919 billion, while non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 37.3% from 24.4% in FY2025.
Q4 FY2026 revenue increased 44% year over year to USD 3.747 billion, non-GAAP gross margin reached 54.4%, and operating cash flow was USD 1.39 billion.
WD has a dual ePMR and HAMR roadmap: 40TB UltraSMR drives were in hyperscaler qualification with volume production planned for the second half of 2026, while HAMR ramp production was targeted for 2027 and capacity scaling toward 100TB by 2029.

Key Investment Risks

Management identifies demand volatility, competitive products and pricing, trade restrictions, limited qualified suppliers, supply-chain disruptions and changes in key-customer relationships as material uncertainties.
The capacity roadmap depends on successful customer qualification and manufacturing execution; delays to 40TB UltraSMR or HAMR adoption could reduce expected growth and margin benefits.
Following the February 2025 separation of Sandisk, WD is a more concentrated HDD-focused business and therefore has less product diversification against storage-market cycles.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.