Western Alliance Bancorp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Western Alliance Bancorp

WALNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)1.22

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $75.10Price as of 30 Sep 2026

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Market Cap $8.2B

Enterprise Value $3.7B

Shares Outstanding 108M diluted

Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

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Thesis Summary

Western Alliance entered the second half of 2026 with solid operating momentum: Q2 earnings per share were $2.36, held-for-investment loans grew $1.8 billion, and net interest income increased 4% sequentially as average earning assets expanded and funding costs improved. Credit indicators also moved favorably, with special-mention loans declining approximately 22%, classified accruing loans declining 3.3%, and net charge-offs falling to 0.37% of average loans. Tangible book value per share increased 13.2% year over year to $63.24 while CET1 remained 11.0%. The resulting stance is Hold rather than a valuation-dependent Buy.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$88.00

Mean target$93.07

High · most bullish analyst$98.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$88.0020%

Rapid balance-sheet growth is followed by weaker underwriting outcomes, reversing the Q2 improvement in special-mention and classified loans. Net charge-offs rise above 0.37% and CET1 falls below 11.0%, reducing flexibility for further growth or capital returns.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$93.0758%

Matches the consensus mean

Loan and net-interest-income growth continue but normalize from Q2 levels, while credit costs fluctuate around the Q2 baseline and CET1 remains adequate.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$98.0022%

Continued C&I-led loan growth, lower funding costs and stable net interest margin sustain net-interest-income expansion. Credit improvement persists, tangible book value continues compounding, and the CET1 ratio remains at or above its Q2 2026 level.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 held-for-investment loan growth was $1.8 billion, reflecting continued momentum in commercial and industrial businesses.
Net interest income increased 4% sequentially, supported by a $2.7 billion increase in average earning assets, stable net interest margin and lower funding costs.
Asset-quality and book-value trends improved: special-mention loans declined approximately 22%, classified accruing loans declined 3.3%, and tangible book value per share increased 13.2% year over year to $63.24.

Key Investment Risks

Credit remains a central sensitivity despite sequential improvement; Q2 net charge-offs were 0.37% of average loans and the allowance for credit losses ratio was 0.89%.
Strong held-for-investment loan growth increases the importance of underwriting discipline and could pressure capital if subsequent credit performance weakens.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.