West Pharmaceutical Services Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

West Pharmaceutical Services Inc

WSTNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryMedical Instruments & Supplies

Beta (adjusted)1.09

Intrinsic Value $309.57median of 6 methods · middle span $297-$358based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $370.76Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $26.1B

Enterprise Value $25.9B

Shares Outstanding 71.8M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend29 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

West entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter organic sales grew 12.7%, HVP Components grew 18.4% organically, adjusted operating margin reached 22.6%, and management raised full-year sales and adjusted-EPS guidance. The strength is concentrated in higher-value components, biologics, Annex 1 upgrades and GLP-1 elastomers. A Hold is appropriate because these fundamentals are favorable.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$340.00

Mean target$404.73

High · most bullish analyst$459.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$340.0019%

Growth falls below guidance as customer ordering moderates, HVP or biologics demand slows, manufacturing or supplier constraints emerge, or cybersecurity and other operating costs impede conversion of sales growth into earnings.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$404.7357%

Matches the consensus mean

West broadly delivers its raised 2026 guidance of $3.345-$3.380 billion in net sales, 10.0%-11.0% organic growth and $8.85-$9.05 in adjusted diluted EPS, with HVP growth offsetting slower West Vantage and standard-product performance.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$459.0024%

HVP Components, biologics and GLP-1 elastomer demand remain strong, mix continues shifting toward higher-value products, and West finishes near or above the upper ends of its 2026 sales and adjusted-EPS guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 organic net sales increased 12.7%, prompting management to raise full-year sales and adjusted-EPS guidance.
HVP Components generated 18.4% organic growth and represented 49% of second-quarter company net sales.
Biologics sales grew 29.2% organically in the second quarter, while management also cited GLP-1 elastomers and Annex 1 upgrades as growth contributors.
Adjusted operating profit margin expanded to 22.6% in the second quarter from 20.3% in the prior-year period.

Key Investment Risks

Third-quarter guidance implies a sequential slowdown and only 7.0%-8.9% organic growth, creating execution risk after a strong first half.
West Vantage organic growth was only 0.8% in the second quarter, materially below Proprietary Products growth.
Management identifies customer inventory decisions, manufacturing capacity, suppliers, product mix, input costs and foreign exchange as factors that can cause results to differ from expectations.
Second-quarter adjustments included professional fees associated with a May 2026 cybersecurity incident, making recurrence and remediation costs relevant monitoring items.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.