Wesco International Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Wesco International Inc

WCCNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryIndustrial Distribution

Beta (adjusted)1.36

Intrinsic Value $196.71median of 6 methods · middle span $177-$482based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $359.59Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 45% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $17.5B

Enterprise Value $22.7B

Shares Outstanding 49.5M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend12 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Wesco entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 net sales rose 13.0%, organic sales rose 12.6%, backlog increased approximately 60%, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 7.3%, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 34.8%. Data-center demand, a significant multi-year Grid Services award and the Newark Engineering acquisition strengthen the growth runway.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$275.00

Mean target$397.09

High · most bullish analyst$440.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$275.0018%

Data-center project timing slows, backlog conversion is deferred, product and segment mix pressure margins, and receivables, inventory or supplier prepayments continue absorbing cash. Organic growth or adjusted EBITDA margin consequently falls below the lower bound of management's raised guidance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$397.0956%

Matches the consensus mean

Wesco delivers within its raised 2026 organic-sales and adjusted-EBITDA-margin guidance after growth moderates from Q2 levels. Data centers remain the principal growth engine, while electrical, utility and broadband demand provide diversification.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$440.0026%

Organic growth remains near the Q2 rate, record backlog converts without material delays, the hyperscale Grid Services award broadens Utility and Broadband Solutions exposure, and Newark Engineering expands Wesco's data-center cooling and lifecycle-services wallet. Sustained gross-margin improvement keeps adjusted EBITDA margin above the raised full-year range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Broad operating momentum: Q2 organic sales increased 12.6%, with volume growth in all three operating segments and a favorable pricing contribution.
Visibility and strategic expansion: backlog increased approximately 60%, and Wesco secured a significant multi-year Grid Services award from a hyperscale data-center customer.
Improving profitability and capabilities: Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 23.6%, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 60 basis points, and Newark Engineering added engineered cooling and lifecycle services for data centers.

Key Investment Risks

Growth has become increasingly data-center-led; management said four consecutive quarters of double-digit sales growth were fueled by data centers, creating sensitivity to hyperscale project timing and customer capital spending.
Working-capital intensity remains material: Q2 operating cash flow was $53.7 million and free cash flow was $32.3 million, with receivables and supplier prepayments weighing on cash conversion.
Financing and execution burdens remain: Q2 interest expense increased by $17.5 million year over year, financial leverage was 3.0x, and digital-transformation costs totaled $23.2 million in the quarter.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.