Werner Enterprises Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryTrucking Beta (adjusted)1.17 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $33.98Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $2B Enterprise Value $2.8B Shares Outstanding 59.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Next ex-dividend5 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Werner Enterprises is navigating a persistently soft freight environment through disciplined cost management, fleet optimization, and strategic expansion of its Dedicated segment. The recent acquisition of FirstFleet has significantly expanded its Dedicated footprint, positioning the company to benefit from more stable, contract-based revenues. While Q1 2026 results showed a surprising positive non-GAAP EPS of $0.02 (beating expectations of a loss), the overall trucking sector remains pressured by excess capacity and high operating costs. The stock has rebounded alongside expectations of a cyclical recovery, but current valuation levels appear to fully price in this recovery, leaving limited near-term upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$42.67 High · most bullish analyst$55.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $30.0015% The freight recession persists longer than expected due to tepid retail restocking and industrial production. Excess capacity remains in the market, preventing meaningful rate increases. High fuel volatility and rising driver-related expenses squeeze margins, while the integration of FirstFleet faces execution delays. Base CaseCentral scenario $42.6760% Matches the consensus meanThe freight market undergoes a slow, supply-led recovery in the second half of 2026. Werner successfully maintains solid contractual renewals in its Dedicated segment (with revenue per truck up flat to 3%) and achieves its guided cost synergies. Margins recover gradually, supported by ongoing restructuring in the One-Way business. Bull CaseUpside scenario $55.0025% A rapid contraction in industry capacity combined with a stronger-than-expected macroeconomic recovery drives a sharp rebound in spot and contract freight rates. Werner's One-Way segment benefits from significant operating leverage, while the FirstFleet integration delivers synergies exceeding the initial $6 million target, driving rapid margin expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |