Welltower Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryHealth Care REITs Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value $117.52median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $230.24Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 49% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $165.9B Enterprise Value $179.1B Shares Outstanding 752M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Welltower entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum, including 25.0% year-over-year quarterly normalized FFO-per-share growth, 15.5% total same-store NOI growth and 20.5% Seniors Housing Operating same-store NOI growth. Its 2.99x net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio and approximately $9.5 billion of liquidity provide substantial capacity for announced investments. The balancing consideration is execution: the company had completed or contracted $15.5 billion of investments year to date, materially increasing integration and capital-allocation demands. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$192.00 Mean target$255.50 High · most bullish analyst$292.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $192.0020% Operating growth falls below the company's guidance floors because of acquisition integration problems, weaker operator performance, expense pressure or adverse capital-market conditions. Leverage increases and the market assigns less value to the expected demographic and operating-platform benefits. Base CaseCentral scenario $255.5055% Matches the consensus meanWelltower remains within its 2026 normalized FFO guidance of $6.36-$6.44 per diluted share and total same-store NOI guidance of 13.75%-16.00%, while integrating its large investment program and retaining balance-sheet flexibility. Bull CaseUpside scenario $292.0025% Welltower delivers near the upper ends of its 2026 normalized FFO and same-store NOI guidance, sustains Seniors Housing Operating growth near the upper end of its 18.5%-21.5% range, and converts its acquisition pipeline into accretive per-share cash-flow growth without materially increasing leverage. Continued scarce new senior-housing supply, demographic demand and Welltower Business System improvements support premium performance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |