Wells Fargo & Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Wells Fargo & Co

WFCNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryDiversified Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.95

Intrinsic Value $61.84median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $80.05Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $242.1B

Enterprise Value $222.7B

Shares Outstanding 3B diluted

Next Earnings Date13 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Wells Fargo has entered a materially stronger operating phase following removal of the Federal Reserve asset cap and termination of the remaining 2018 Federal Reserve consent order. Second-quarter 2026 results showed broad balance-sheet growth, a 17.7% ROTCE, and improved efficiency, while the 2.5% stress capital buffer and higher common dividend support the capital-return case. The principal uncertainties are whether rapid post-cap growth can preserve underwriting and deposit economics, whether credit costs remain controlled, and whether efficiency gains persist.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets23 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$90.00

Mean target$100.24

High · most bullish analyst$115.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$90.0018%

Loan growth stalls or produces weaker risk-adjusted returns, net charge-offs rise above the monitoring guardrail, and the efficiency ratio reverses toward or beyond its prior-year level, reducing the earnings benefit from regulatory normalization.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$100.2458%

Matches the consensus mean

Growth moderates from the initial post-cap acceleration, ROTCE remains near the medium-term objective, credit costs normalize without a material shock, and efficiency remains better than the prior-year level.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$115.0024%

Controlled post-cap expansion sustains loan and deposit growth, ROTCE remains within or above the 17%-18% medium-term objective, credit losses remain contained, and continued capital distributions reinforce per-share value creation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The Federal Reserve removed the asset-growth restriction in June 2025 and terminated the associated 2018 consent order in March 2026, removing major regulatory constraints on growth.
Second-quarter 2026 results included $22.622 billion of revenue, $6.407 billion of net income, 17.7% ROTCE, and substantial year-over-year growth in average loans and deposits.
The 2026 stress capital buffer remained 2.5%, and the board subsequently increased the quarterly common dividend to $0.50 per share.

Key Investment Risks

Rapid balance-sheet expansion following removal of the asset cap could weaken underwriting quality, deposit pricing, or risk-adjusted returns if growth is pursued too aggressively.
A material increase in net loan charge-offs or nonperforming assets would raise provisions and challenge the current profitability trajectory.
Failure to sustain expense discipline, operational controls, and positive operating leverage could reverse recent efficiency and return improvements.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.