Watts Water Technologies Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products Beta (adjusted)1.09 Intrinsic Value $279.67median of 6 methods · middle span $224-$426based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $354.18Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.8B Enterprise Value $11.6B Shares Outstanding 33.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Watts is executing strongly: second-quarter organic sales rose 12.2%, data-center demand supported volume, and management raised full-year organic-growth and adjusted-margin guidance. Its broad, regulation-supported water-products portfolio and substantial repair-and-replacement exposure support resilience. However, the August 31 intraday price of $365.13 already reflects much of this favorable outlook. The probability-weighted value of the internally developed bull, base and bear scenarios is $367.50, leaving limited expected return from the observed price and supporting a Hold rather than a Buy. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$320.00 Mean target$393.00 High · most bullish analyst$447.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $320.0019% Data-center demand normalizes sharply, construction markets remain weak, and tariff, inflation and acquisition-integration pressures push organic growth and adjusted margin below their guidance floors. Working-capital conversion also recovers more slowly than management expects, reducing support for the current valuation. Base CaseCentral scenario $393.0056% Matches the consensus meanOrganic growth finishes within the raised 8%-11% range and adjusted operating margin remains within the 19.8%-20.4% outlook. Data-center growth moderates from exceptional first-half levels, while repair-and-replacement demand and pricing offset mixed construction markets. Bull CaseUpside scenario $447.0025% Sustained data-center demand, continued favorable pricing and productivity allow organic growth to finish near or above the upper end of guidance while margins remain around the strong second-quarter level. Successful integration of recent acquisitions and continued exposure to safety, regulation, energy efficiency and water conservation support a premium outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |