Waste Management Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryEnvironmental & Facilities Services Beta (adjusted)0.61 Intrinsic Value $232.01median of 6 methods · middle span $195-$314based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $203.92Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $81.5B Enterprise Value $103.2B Shares Outstanding 403.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend5 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary WM merits a Buy rating with medium conviction. Second-quarter 2026 results showed 4.0% revenue growth, 5.5% adjusted operating EBITDA growth, adjusted margin expansion to 30.9%, and a 34.5% increase in free cash flow. Management retained its original USD 8.15-8.25 billion adjusted operating EBITDA and USD 3.75-3.85 billion free-cash-flow ranges despite lowering revenue expectations by approximately 0.6%, demonstrating cost flexibility. The constructive case rests on durable pricing, productivity, healthcare integration and scaling recycling and renewable-energy assets. The principal near-term concern is volume: Collection and Disposal volume fell 1.8%, or 0.4% excluding prior-year wildfire work, while recycled-commodity and energy-credit prices remained below prior-year levels. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$220.00 Mean target$259.92 High · most bullish analyst$277.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $215.0020% Researcher-generated 12-month scenario. Persistent volume weakness, lower recycled-commodity and renewable-credit pricing, or weaker Healthcare Solutions execution causes revenue to fall below the revised range and adjusted margin to miss 31.0%. Free cash flow falls below USD 3.75 billion, weakening the expected return profile. Base CaseCentral scenario $259.9255% Matches the consensus meanResearcher-generated 12-month scenario. WM delivers near the midpoint of its USD 8.15-8.25 billion adjusted operating EBITDA and USD 3.75-3.85 billion free-cash-flow guidance, with full-year adjusted margin within 31.0%-31.2%. Core pricing and productivity offset modestly weak volumes, while healthcare and sustainability assets provide incremental growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $285.0025% Researcher-generated 12-month scenario. WM exceeds the upper ends of its 2026 profitability and cash-flow outlooks as underlying waste volumes recover, Collection and Disposal pricing remains above cost inflation, Healthcare Solutions expands beyond its 19.0% second-quarter adjusted margin, and completed recycling and renewable-gas projects sustain strong growth. Continued automation gains support a premium valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |