Waste Connections Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Waste Connections Inc

WCNNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryEnvironmental & Facilities Services

Beta (adjusted)0.65

Intrinsic Value $189.99median of 6 methods · middle span $155-$210based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $153.93Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $38.7B

Enterprise Value $47.9B

Shares Outstanding 253.9M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend6 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Waste Connections entered the second half of 2026 with favorable operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 6.4%, adjusted EBITDA increased 6.8%, management raised full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, and year-to-date repurchases reached $614.5 million. Pricing remained supportive, but second-quarter unit volume declined 1.9%, fuel and related costs created pressure, and comparatively weak commodity values remained a drag.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$162.00

Mean target$200.60

High · most bullish analyst$220.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$162.0020%

Persistent volume contraction, weaker commodity economics, fuel pressure or acquisition underperformance causes results to fall below the raised outlook. The scenario price reference is the issuer-reported 52-week low.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$200.6055%

Matches the consensus mean

The company delivers approximately within its raised 2026 outlook as pricing offsets weak unit volumes and cost pressure.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$220.0025%

Execution remains above plan, fuel-cost recovery improves, commodity values strengthen and additional acquisitions add upside beyond guidance. The scenario price reference is the issuer-reported 52-week high.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $10.02-$10.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $3.33-$3.34 billion after better-than-expected second-quarter performance.
Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached $840.1 million, while underlying margin expansion offset significant fuel-related and commodity pressure.
The company reported more than $100 million of acquired annualized revenue and $614.5 million of year-to-date share repurchases.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter solid-waste unit volume declined 1.9%, indicating that pricing-led growth continues to coexist with demand softness.
Rapidly increasing fuel and related costs, comparatively lower commodity values, and landfill closure or post-closure adjustments could pressure reported results.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.