Washington Trust Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.80 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $37.99Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $724.6M Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 19.1M diluted Next Earnings Date19 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Washington Trust Bancorp (WASH) presents a balanced risk-reward profile, supporting a Hold recommendation. On the positive side, the bank maintains a strong capital position with a 12% CET1 ratio and offers an attractive, high dividend yield of approximately 6.9% to 7.5% depending on recent price fluctuations. Furthermore, its Net Interest Margin (NIM) has shown recovery, rising to 2.63% in Q1 2026. However, these strengths are offset by significant credit quality concerns within its Commercial Real Estate (CRE) office portfolio, highlighted by two large office loans moving to nonaccrual status in Q1 2026. Additionally, a high dividend payout ratio (historically around 82%) combined with declining long-term earnings growth limits dividend growth potential and poses sustainability risks if credit losses escalate. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$31.00 Mean target$36.00 High · most bullish analyst$41.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case is triggered by systemic distress in the Northeast commercial real estate market, causing additional office loans to default. This would force Washington Trust to significantly increase its provision for credit losses, eroding its capital buffer. If quarterly earnings fall consistently below the dividend payout requirement, management may be forced to cut the dividend to preserve capital, leading to a sharp sell-off. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that the credit issues in the CRE office portfolio remain isolated to the currently identified properties, preventing widespread defaults. NIM continues its gradual recovery toward the 2.75%-2.80% range as interest rates stabilize. Under these conditions, the bank's earnings will support the current quarterly dividend of $0.56 per share, maintaining its appeal to income-focused investors. The stock is expected to trade close to its historical multiples, reflecting fair valuation. Bull CaseUpside scenario Stabilization and expansion of net interest margins (NIM) driven by the termination of high-cost swaps and improvements in deposit mix, alongside robust growth in the Wealth Management and Institutional Banking segments. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |