Warner Music Group Corp Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryEntertainment Beta (adjusted)1.19 Intrinsic Value $60.30median of 6 methods · middle span $30-$385based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $27.61Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 118% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+118%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.4B Enterprise Value $17.9B Shares Outstanding 523.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Warner Music Group's latest reported quarter supports a positive but execution-sensitive thesis. Reported revenue rose 10.4%, Recorded Music subscription streaming grew 12.5%, Music Publishing streaming grew 14.4%, and Adjusted OIBDA margin expanded to 23.2%. Management continued to expect the high end of its 150-200 basis-point FY2026 margin-expansion range and reiterated a 50%-60% operating-cash-flow conversion target. The $28.03 share price provides a reasonable entry point if double-digit subscription growth and operating leverage persist. The principal constraints are substantial net debt, dependence on DSP economics and artist-release performance, and execution risk around acquisitions and emerging AI monetization. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$36.88 High · most bullish analyst$46.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.0019% Streaming growth falls below double digits as DSP economics, release timing, or market share weaken; reinvestment and integration costs reverse margin progress; and leverage limits strategic flexibility. AI and distribution acquisitions fail to generate sufficient incremental returns or introduce additional execution costs. Base CaseCentral scenario $36.8856% Matches the consensus meanRecorded Music and Music Publishing sustain healthy growth, but reported growth moderates after strong FY2026 comparisons. WMG delivers approximately the high end of its FY2026 margin-expansion guidance, converts operating earnings into cash within its stated range, and gradually integrates recent technology investments. Bull CaseUpside scenario $46.0025% Subscription and publishing streaming remain at double-digit growth rates, improved DSP terms persist, market-share gains continue, and savings plus favorable mix extend margin expansion beyond current expectations. Sureel AI and Revelator strengthen rights attribution, independent distribution, and royalty infrastructure, creating incremental monetization and improving WMG's technology position. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |