Walt Disney Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Walt Disney Co

DISNYSE

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryMovies & Entertainment

Beta (adjusted)1.26

Intrinsic Value $104.05median of 6 methods · middle span $101-$114based on filings through 27 Jun 2026

Market Price $104.90Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $181.1B

Enterprise Value $222B

Shares Outstanding 1.8B diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Disney retains a differentiated portfolio of franchise intellectual property, streaming distribution, sports engagement and physical experiences. Recent evidence includes higher global guest volumes, a billion-dollar theatrical release and progress integrating Hulu profiles into Disney+. The balanced stance reflects uneven film performance, acknowledged under-monetization of Disney+ internationally and material exposure to consumer demand, competition and execution risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets31 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$88.00

Mean target$127.72

High · most bullish analyst$160.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$88.0023%

The downside case assumes weaker discretionary-travel demand, further major franchise releases falling below company expectations, and difficulty converting international Disney+ reach into durable engagement and monetization. Competitive, regulatory, geopolitical, technological and weather-related pressures could compound execution shortfalls.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$127.7258%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes continued but uneven execution: parks and cruises retain positive demand, major franchises continue producing cross-platform value, and Disney+ integration progresses while international monetization improves gradually.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$160.0019%

The upside case assumes Disney converts its franchise flywheel into sustained engagement across theatrical releases, streaming, merchandise and experiences; maintains positive global guest growth; improves international Disney+ monetization; and introduces the planned expanded digital ecosystem on schedule in spring 2027.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Disney can extend successful intellectual property across theaters, streaming, merchandise, games and physical experiences; Toy Story 5 surpassed $1 billion at the global box office, while the franchise also generated substantial streaming engagement and retail sales.
Experiences demand remained constructive in the latest reported quarter, with global guests increasing 4% year over year and additional cruise capacity contributing to growth.
Disney is integrating its digital services: Hulu subscribers gained Disney+ profile-linking capabilities, and management plans to begin introducing a broader Disney+ ecosystem in spring 2027.

Key Investment Risks

Content outcomes remain volatile: Disney identified The Mandalorian and Grogu and the live-action Moana as releases that did not meet its box-office expectations.
Management acknowledged that Disney+ remains under-monetized in international markets and requires additional work to scale, creating execution risk around localization, engagement and subscriber economics.
The company identifies competitive conditions, changing consumer preferences, advertising demand, economic and geopolitical conditions, regulation, technology, labor, weather and content availability as factors that can affect performance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.