Walmart Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Walmart Inc.

WMTNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryBroadline Retail

Beta (adjusted)0.73

Intrinsic Value $71.01median of 6 methods · middle span $58-$97based on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $103.92Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $827B

Enterprise Value $855.4B

Shares Outstanding 8B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

At the issuer-reported intraday price of $102.83 on August 28, 2026, Walmart offers a favorable risk-adjusted setup following a strong second quarter and higher FY27 guidance. The central thesis is that sustained eCommerce scale, advertising, membership, marketplace and fulfillment growth can continue improving the earnings mix, while Walmart's value positioning supports share gains. The principal offsets are slower Walmart U.S. comparable sales, the nonrecurring contribution from tariff refunds, elevated investment spending and inventory growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets40 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$81.00

Mean target$137.98

High · most bullish analyst$155.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$81.0020%

An $85 scenario assumes Walmart U.S. comparable-sales growth falls below 2%, eCommerce growth drops below 20%, inventory rises materially faster than sales, and the normalization of tariff-refund benefits exposes weaker operating leverage while capital spending remains elevated.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$137.9855%

Matches the consensus mean

A $120 scenario assumes FY27 net-sales and adjusted-operating-income growth remain within Walmart's raised 4.0%-5.0% and 7.0%-8.5% constant-currency ranges, respectively, while eCommerce and higher-margin commerce services partly offset moderating U.S. comparable sales and higher investment.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$155.0025%

A $140 scenario assumes global eCommerce remains above 20%, advertising sustains strong double-digit growth, marketplace and fulfillment adoption improve digital economics, and FY27 results finish near or above the upper ends of the raised sales and adjusted-operating-income ranges.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 FY27 global eCommerce sales increased 23%, global advertising increased 38%, and global membership-fee revenue increased 17%, demonstrating continued growth in digitally enabled and higher-margin revenue streams.
Management raised FY27 constant-currency net-sales growth guidance to 4.0%-5.0%, adjusted-operating-income growth guidance to 7.0%-8.5%, and adjusted EPS guidance to $2.80-$2.87.
Walmart U.S. eCommerce increased 24%, store-fulfilled delivery increased 40%, and marketplace net sales increased more than 50% in Q2 FY27.

Key Investment Risks

Walmart U.S. comparable-sales growth excluding fuel moderated to 2.6% in Q2 FY27 and included a 125-basis-point pharmacy-pricing headwind.
Q2 adjusted operating-income growth included an approximately 750-basis-point net benefit from tariff refunds, creating a difficult comparison and uncertainty around normalized operating leverage.
FY27 capital-expenditure guidance increased to approximately 4.0% of net sales, while first-half free cash flow declined by $1.4 billion year over year, raising execution and return-on-investment sensitivity.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.