Walker & Dunlop Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryMortgage Finance Beta (adjusted)1.32 Intrinsic Value $53.12median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $35.11Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 51% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+51%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.2B Enterprise Value $3.3B Shares Outstanding 33.4M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Walker & Dunlop is a premier commercial real estate finance firm positioned to capture significant market share as the real estate transaction cycle rebounds. The company's newly unveiled 'Journey to '30' strategic plan targets $115 billion in transaction volumes and over $2 billion in revenues by 2030, supported by a massive wave of maturing 5-year and 10-year loans. While near-term headwinds persist from interest rate volatility and localized credit distress (such as recent borrower fraud foreclosures in Chicago), the firm's robust servicing portfolio provides highly durable recurring cash flows that support its 5%+ dividend yield and protect the downside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$57.00 Mean target$62.00 High · most bullish analyst$70.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $57.0015% A 'higher-for-longer' interest rate environment persists, accompanied by rising defaults in the multifamily sector. Additional borrower fraud cases emerge, forcing Walker & Dunlop to repurchase loans or incur substantial credit losses, which pressures margins and threatens the dividend. Base CaseCentral scenario $62.0060% Matches the consensus meanInterest rates stabilize with the 10-year Treasury remaining in the low-to-mid 4% range. Sponsors adapt to the current cost of capital, leading to a gradual but steady recovery in refinancing and investment sales. Walker & Dunlop successfully manages down its GSE repurchase exposure to the target range of $100M-$125M by year-end, while growing its servicing portfolio. Bull CaseUpside scenario $70.0025% A rapid easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve triggers a sharp rebound in commercial real estate transactions. Sidelined institutional capital deploys aggressively, driving transaction volumes past expectations. Under this scenario, Walker & Dunlop achieves its $300 million production per broker target early, and credit provisions decline as property values recover. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |