WaFd Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

WaFd Inc

WAFDNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.89

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $29.93Price as of 30 Sep 2026

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Market Cap $2.2B

Enterprise Value $4.7B

Shares Outstanding 75M diluted

Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

WAFD Inc (WaFd Bank) presents a balanced risk-reward profile as of mid-2026. The bank has demonstrated solid execution, highlighted by sequential Net Interest Margin (NIM) expansion to 2.81% and robust capital management, including aggressive share buybacks. However, near-term upside appears limited as the stock trades close to its consensus analyst price target of $37.00, reflecting a tight fair value range. While the bank benefits from its strategic exit from the low-yield mortgage lending market to focus on higher-yielding commercial loans, ongoing deposit competition and regulatory CRA challenges pose headwinds that justify a neutral stance.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$36.00

Mean target$39.00

High · most bullish analyst$40.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$36.0015%

Deposit competition intensifies, forcing deposit betas higher and compressing NIM. Credit quality deteriorates in the commercial real estate portfolio, leading to higher provisioning. Regulatory hurdles related to CRA ratings delay strategic initiatives or increase compliance costs, causing valuation multiples to contract.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$39.0060%

Matches the consensus mean

NIM remains relatively flat near-term around 2.80% before gradually improving. Loan growth remains modest as principal repayments offset new originations in a sustained high-rate environment. Share buybacks and stable dividends provide a solid floor for valuation, keeping the stock trading in line with regional peers.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$40.0025%

NIM expands rapidly toward the 3.0% target driven by faster-than-expected backbook loan repricing and successful deposit beta management. Commercial loan originations accelerate in high-growth Western markets, and the aggressive share repurchase program continues to drive double-digit EPS growth, pushing the stock past historical valuation multiples.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Sequential NIM expansion to 2.81% driven by disciplined deposit pricing and loan repricing.
Strong capital position with a CET1 ratio of 11.35% supporting active share buybacks (4.7 million shares repurchased YTD).
Strategic transition toward higher-yielding commercial and business banking segments.

Key Investment Risks

Sustained high interest rates limiting overall loan origination volumes.
Intense regional deposit competition pressuring funding costs.
Regulatory and reputational risks associated with CRA challenges.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

NIM falling below 2.65% in consecutive quarters.
A material increase in non-performing assets or net charge-offs within the commercial real estate portfolio.
Regulatory sanctions or formal enforcement actions regarding CRA compliance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.