Wabash National Corp Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryConstruction Machinery & Heavy Trucks Beta (adjusted)1.29 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $12.33Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $502.3M Enterprise Value $956.9M Shares Outstanding 39.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Wabash National is navigating a severe freight down-cycle, characterized by cautious capital spending from fleets and operational inefficiencies due to lower production volumes. While Q1 2026 is expected to represent the cyclical low point, near-term profitability remains under significant pressure, as evidenced by negative gross and operating margins. However, a strong sequential backlog increase (+19% to $837 million) and upcoming regulatory tailwinds (Section 232 tariffs and antidumping duties) point to a potential demand recovery in late 2026 and 2027. Given the lack of near-term visibility and ongoing cash burn, a Hold recommendation is warranted until clear signs of margin stabilization and truck body segment recovery emerge. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.00 Mean target$22.50 High · most bullish analyst$25.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $9.0015% The freight recession is prolonged well into 2027, keeping trailer demand depressed. Operational inefficiencies from low capacity utilization persist, leading to continued negative operating margins and deeper liquidity drain. Startup costs at new upfit sites remain unabsorbed, and high debt levels pressure the balance sheet. Base CaseCentral scenario $8.5060% Wabash experiences a gradual, sequential improvement throughout the remainder of 2026, with positive adjusted EBITDA returning in the second half of the year. The truck body segment remains soft in the near term but begins to stabilize by late 2026, trailing the dry van recovery by 6 to 9 months. Liquidity is maintained above critical levels as capital expenditures are tightly managed. Bull CaseUpside scenario $14.5025% A rapid recovery in freight spot and contract rates drives a surge in replacement demand for dry vans. Wabash successfully leverages its EcoNex technology and digital tools like SpecSync to capture market share. Section 232 tariffs provide immediate pricing power, allowing gross margins to quickly return to double-digit levels, while upfit operations scale profitably. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |