W R Berkley Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

W R Berkley Corp

WRBNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryProperty & Casualty Insurance

Beta (adjusted)0.52

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $67.54Price as of 30 Sep 2026

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Market Cap $25.1B

Shares Outstanding 393.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date19 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend23 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

W. R. Berkley's operating record remains strong: second-quarter 2026 operating return on beginning equity was 20.5%, the GAAP combined ratio was 90.0%, net investment income reached a quarterly record, and capital continued to be returned through dividends and repurchases.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$51.00

Mean target$69.53

High · most bullish analyst$83.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$51.0023%

Catastrophe losses, adverse reserve development, weaker pricing or higher loss-cost inflation push the combined ratio materially higher, while declining reinvestment yields or investment volatility reduce the support from investment income.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$69.5357%

Matches the consensus mean

Underwriting remains profitable but normalizes modestly from the strongest recent results; investment income continues to benefit from asset growth and reinvestment rates above book yield; and capital returns remain meaningful.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$83.0020%

Underwriting discipline keeps the combined ratio near or below recent levels, liability-line opportunities support profitable premium expansion, reinvestment yields remain above portfolio book yield, and continued operating cash generation permits further dividends and repurchases.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong underwriting profitability, including a 90.0% second-quarter 2026 GAAP combined ratio and an 88.1% current-accident-year combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses.
Second-quarter 2026 net investment income increased 10.4% to a record $418.7 million, with reinvestment rates reported above annual portfolio book yield.
Capital generation supports shareholder distributions: $334.1 million was returned during the second quarter of 2026, and 6,156,370 shares were repurchased during the first half.

Key Investment Risks

Catastrophe volatility remains material; second-quarter 2026 catastrophe losses added 2.0 percentage points to the current-accident-year combined ratio.
Property-casualty insurance and reinsurance involve long-tail claim uncertainty, reserve-estimation risk, pricing cyclicality and potentially adverse emerging coverage issues.
Investment earnings and book value remain exposed to interest rates, credit conditions, equity-market volatility and other changes in the value of invested assets.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.