W. P. Carey Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Diversified Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value $59.35median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $64.63Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.7B Enterprise Value $23.4B Shares Outstanding 224.8M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary W. P. Carey's operating evidence is constructive: second-quarter AFFO per share increased 4.7% year over year, management raised full-year AFFO and investment-volume guidance, and the net lease portfolio reported 98.5% occupancy, 2.6% contractual same-store rent growth and a 12.2-year weighted-average lease term. The offset is valuation uncertainty and refinancing sensitivity: the issuer identified higher interest rates on refinanced debt as a partial drag on AFFO. With the latest issuer-displayed close at $70.51 on August 28, 2026, the scenario reference points use the issuer's current price and 52-week range rather than representing analyst consensus targets. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$75.00 Mean target$80.00 High · most bullish analyst$88.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $75.0018% AFFO falls below the $5.19 guidance floor, investment deployment misses $1.7 billion, or occupancy deteriorates as tenant losses and refinancing costs outweigh acquisition and rent-growth benefits. Under that combination, the issuer-reported 52-week low is the downside reference. Base CaseCentral scenario $80.0060% Matches the consensus meanAFFO and investment volume remain within management's updated ranges while high occupancy and contractual rent growth offset refinancing pressure. Bull CaseUpside scenario $88.0022% AFFO reaches the upper portion of the $5.19-$5.27 guidance range, investment volume approaches the $2.1 billion upper bound, occupancy remains near 98.5%, and durable rent escalation supports a return toward the issuer-reported 52-week high. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |