Vulcan Materials Co Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryConstruction Materials Beta (adjusted)1.03 Intrinsic Value $279.41median of 6 methods · middle span $234-$428based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $244.63Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $31.7B Enterprise Value $35.9B Shares Outstanding 130.9M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Vulcan's operating evidence is constructive: trailing-twelve-month revenue and adjusted EBITDA increased, aggregates pricing remained positive, unit profitability exceeded $11 per ton, leverage was below the company's target range, and management reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook. The offset is that second-quarter adjusted EBITDA declined year over year, energy inflation lifted unit cash costs, weather constrained important markets, and the NAFTA tribunal awarded only negligible damages despite finding violations. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$198.00 Mean target$325.55 High · most bullish analyst$365.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $198.0018% Construction volumes weaken or adverse weather persists while energy and transportation costs remain elevated. Pricing fails to offset cost inflation, aggregates unit profitability retreats to the 2025 level or below, and adjusted EBITDA misses the lower end of guidance. The negligible NAFTA damages award also limits potential recovery from the Mexico dispute. Base CaseCentral scenario $325.5558% Matches the consensus meanVulcan delivers within its reaffirmed $2.4-$2.6 billion adjusted EBITDA range as modest volume growth, positive pricing and operating discipline offset diesel inflation and episodic weather disruption. The aggregates-focused portfolio and leverage below the stated target range preserve strategic flexibility. Bull CaseUpside scenario $365.0024% Commercial discipline, public construction and large projects support stronger volume, while mix-adjusted pricing continues to outpace underlying costs. Aggregates cash gross profit per ton compounds above the 2025 baseline, adjusted EBITDA reaches the upper end of guidance, and balance-sheet capacity supports disciplined aggregates acquisitions and repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |