Vornado Realty Trust Dossier - Source-backed chat

Vornado Realty Trust

VNONYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryOffice REITs

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $33.88Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $6.7B

Shares Outstanding 188.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend18 Dec 2025

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE: VNO) is navigating a complex macroeconomic environment characterized by high interest rates and structural shifts in office demand. While the company benefits from a premium, highly concentrated Manhattan office and retail portfolio, elevated financing costs continue to pressure comparable FFO. Recent leasing momentum, positive cash mark-to-market spreads, and the development of the Penn District provide long-term support, but near-term earnings growth remains constrained.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$31.00

Mean target$40.38

High · most bullish analyst$50.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$31.0015%

Prolonged high interest rates, tenant defaults, or a broader economic recession leading to a decline in occupancy and rental rates, forcing further dividend cuts or dilutive capital raises.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$40.3860%

Matches the consensus mean

Gradual recovery in Manhattan office occupancy, stable retail rental income, and moderate headwind from refinancing existing debt at higher rates. FFO remains relatively flat to slightly up in the near term.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$50.0025%

Accelerated return-to-office trends, stronger-than-expected leasing velocity in the Penn District, and a rapid decline in interest rates drive significant FFO expansion and valuation multiple expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Concentrated portfolio of premier, Class-A Manhattan office and street-level retail assets.
Strong liquidity position of approximately $2.6 billion to buffer near-term debt maturities.
Positive cash mark-to-market spreads of 9.7% on recent Manhattan leasing.

Key Investment Risks

Elevated interest rates driving up net interest expenses and depressing comparable FFO.
Refinancing risk with substantial outstanding debt maturing over the next few years.
Structural headwinds in the broader office sector due to hybrid work models.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Manhattan office occupancy falling below 90%.
Comparable quarterly FFO dropping below $0.45 per share.
Inability to refinance upcoming debt maturities on acceptable terms.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.