VOC Energy Trust Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.40 Intrinsic Value $14.91median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $3.41Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 337% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+337%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $58M Enterprise Value $55.9M Shares Outstanding 17M diluted Last ex-dividend30 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary VOC Energy Trust is a passive, liquidating statutory trust designed to distribute cash flows from its 80% term net profits interest in mature oil and gas properties in Kansas and Texas. The trust has a finite economic life, terminating on the earlier of December 31, 2030, or when cumulative production reaches 10.6 MMBoe. While it offers a high trailing distribution yield, its long-term value is subject to natural production declines, operator cost deductions, and commodity price volatility. Given its mature, non-operated asset base and lack of reinvestment opportunities, it is best suited as a short-to-medium-term income vehicle rather than a long-term compounder. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A sharp decline in commodity prices combined with rising oilfield service costs reduces net proceeds. High development and lease operating expenses deducted by the operator compress the net profits interest, leading to a substantial reduction or suspension of quarterly distributions. Base CaseCentral scenario Under stable commodity prices (WTI oil around $60-$70/Bbl) and steady production declines, the trust continues to distribute quarterly cash flows to unitholders. The operator, VOC Brazos, maintains moderate development spending to mitigate natural decline rates, allowing the trust to pay out consistent distributions until its scheduled termination. Bull CaseUpside scenario VOC Energy Trust offers high-yield, tax-efficient direct exposure to crude oil and natural gas price movements without direct operational risks or capital expenditure requirements. The trust distributes nearly all of its net proceeds quarterly, making it highly attractive to income-focused investors during periods of rising commodity prices. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |