Visa Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Visa Inc.

VNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryTransaction & Payment Processing Services

Beta (adjusted)0.84

Intrinsic Value $354.77median of 6 methods · middle span $263-$666based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $359.33Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $674.6B

Enterprise Value $686.2B

Shares Outstanding 1.9B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Visa entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with double-digit growth in net revenue, payments volume and cross-border volume, while value-added services materially outgrew the core network. Partnerships and product development in agentic commerce and stablecoin settlement provide additional optionality.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets37 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$330.00

Mean target$416.20

High · most bullish analyst$450.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$330.0021%

Consumer or cross-border activity contracts, value-added services growth weakens materially, or an adverse regulatory or litigation outcome impairs network economics and raises compliance or remediation costs.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$416.2057%

Matches the consensus mean

Core payment volumes continue growing, though below the strongest recent rates, while value-added services remain an important growth contributor.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$450.0022%

Payments and cross-border volume remain resilient, value-added services sustain substantially faster growth than the core network, and Visa converts its agentic-commerce and stablecoin initiatives into incremental transaction and service revenue.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal third-quarter 2026 results showed broad-based operating momentum, including 14% net-revenue growth, 10% constant-currency payments-volume growth and 12% constant-currency cross-border growth excluding intra-Europe transactions.
Value-added services revenue grew 34% in constant currency during fiscal Q3 2026, demonstrating diversification beyond transaction-driven network revenue.
Visa is extending its network, tokenization and security capabilities into agentic commerce and multi-chain stablecoin settlement.

Key Investment Risks

Visa remains exposed to regulatory, antitrust and private-litigation actions that could affect network rules, pricing, costs or competitive conduct.
A broad slowdown in consumer spending, travel or international commerce could weaken payments and cross-border volume growth.
New payment technologies create execution and competitive risk if Visa's agentic-commerce, tokenization and stablecoin initiatives fail to generate durable adoption.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.