Village Super Market Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail Beta (adjusted)0.64 Intrinsic Value $39.82median of 6 methods · middle span $28-$97based on filings through 25 Apr 2026 Market Price $45.42Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $672.6M Enterprise Value $600.5M Shares Outstanding 14.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date6 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Village Super Market Inc. (VLGEA) operates as a highly defensive regional grocery chain under the ShopRite, Fairway, and Gourmet Garage banners. While the company maintains a dominant market share in its core New Jersey footprint, it faces persistent gross margin compression driven by lower patronage dividends from the Wakefern cooperative, rising warehouse assessment charges, and intense promotional competition. Recent Q3 fiscal 2026 results highlighted these headwinds, with same-store sales dipping 0.2% (impacted by Winter Storm Fern) and gross margin contracting. Although digital sales remain a bright spot (up 9% in Q3), the stock's limited near-term upside and modest dividend yield (~2.4%) justify a Hold rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $32.0015% Hard discounters aggressively capture market share in the Mid-Atlantic region, leading to persistent negative same-store sales. Gross margins compress further due to promotional price wars and rising labor costs, forcing a reduction in capital expenditure plans and threatening dividend coverage. Base CaseCentral scenario $39.0060% Same-store sales growth stabilizes in the low-single digits (1.0% to 2.0%), while gross margins remain under pressure from promotional intensity and cooperative cost allocations. Capital expenditures remain elevated at around $75 million to fund store remodels and replacement locations, keeping free cash flow stable but flat. Bull CaseUpside scenario $45.0025% A rapid normalization of supply chain costs and an increase in patronage dividends from Wakefern, combined with successful execution of replacement store openings (such as East Orange, NJ), drives gross margin recovery. Digital sales growth accelerates beyond expectations, improving operating leverage. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |