Vicor Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Vicor Corp

VICRNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryElectronic Components

Beta (adjusted)1.93

Intrinsic Value $184.21median of 6 methods · middle span $62-$296based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $288.94Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 36% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $13.3B

Enterprise Value $12.9B

Shares Outstanding 47.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend5 Aug 2011

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Vicor's second-quarter 2026 results showed a substantial improvement in demand, product mix and profitability: product and royalty revenue reached $143.4 million, one-year backlog reached $379.7 million and gross margin reached 58.0%. Advanced power products address power-density and efficiency constraints in high-performance computing and other demanding applications, while patent licensing provides an additional monetization channel. The opportunity is balanced by execution risk, potentially episodic licensing revenue, customer-program volatility and the possibility that current backlog does not convert on schedule.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$320.00

Mean target$386.25

High · most bullish analyst$450.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$320.0020%

Large customer programs are delayed or reduced, backlog conversion slows, licensing proves episodic and lower utilization or an unfavorable mix returns gross margin toward historical levels.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$386.2555%

Matches the consensus mean

Backlog supports continued growth, advanced products remain the principal mix driver and licensing supplements rather than replaces product economics.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$450.0025%

Demand for high-density power delivery accelerates across artificial intelligence infrastructure and other advanced-product markets, backlog converts on schedule, manufacturing capacity scales efficiently and additional licensing agreements extend IP monetization beyond currently disclosed expectations.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

A $379.7 million one-year backlog provides meaningful near-term demand visibility relative to Vicor's 2025 revenue base.
Vicor can monetize proprietary power-delivery technology through both product sales and licensing; the company previously disclosed nearly $300 million of expected licensing contribution through 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Licensing and litigation-related revenue can be large but irregular, making reported growth and margins less repeatable than product-only results.
Backlog conversion, customer-program timing and successful utilization of Vicor's automated manufacturing capacity remain central execution dependencies.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.