Viavi Solutions Inc Dossier
|
SectorInformation Technology IndustryCommunication Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.15 Intrinsic Value $16.74median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $41.92Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 60% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-60%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.3B Enterprise Value $10.5B Shares Outstanding 229.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary VIAVI entered FY2027 with strong operating momentum: Q4 FY2026 revenue increased 52.5% year over year to $443.1 million, non-GAAP operating margin reached 24.0%, and management guided Q1 FY2027 revenue to $450-$460 million with non-GAAP EPS of $0.40-$0.42. Data-center ecosystem and aerospace-and-defense demand support the growth case, but acquisition integration, limited visibility, product-mix volatility, and the large FY2026 difference between GAAP and non-GAAP EPS temper conviction. A Hold is appropriate pending evidence that revenue growth and margin expansion persist and convert more consistently into GAAP earnings. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$44.00 Mean target$61.43 High · most bullish analyst$70.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $44.0018% Q1 FY2027 revenue falls below $450 million or non-GAAP EPS falls below $0.40, while operating margin drops below 20.0%. Weak demand visibility, unfavorable mix, competitive pressure, or acquisition-integration problems would indicate that recent growth and margin gains are not sustainable. Base CaseCentral scenario $61.4358% Matches the consensus meanQ1 FY2027 revenue and non-GAAP EPS remain within the respective $450-$460 million and $0.40-$0.42 guidance ranges, while operating margin remains above the 20.0% monitoring threshold. Growth moderates from Q4 FY2026 rates as acquisition benefits normalize, but diversification supports continued earnings expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $70.0024% Revenue reaches or exceeds the upper end of Q1 FY2027 guidance, non-GAAP EPS reaches or exceeds $0.42, and non-GAAP operating margin remains near the 24.0% Q4 FY2026 level. Continued data-center ecosystem and aerospace-and-defense strength, combined with effective integration, would demonstrate that FY2026 growth was durable rather than transitory. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |