Viatris Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $9.93median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $17.72Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 44% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $20.4B Enterprise Value $32.8B Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Viatris entered the second half of 2026 with improving operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 5% as reported, adjusted EBITDA increased 8% operationally, and management raised the midpoints of every 2026 guidance metric. A 2.9x gross leverage ratio, continued dividends and repurchases support the capital-return case. Balance is warranted because Nashik remediation is expected to reduce second-half revenue by USD 100-150 million, while restructuring, supply reliability and commercialization of the developing pipeline remain material execution tests. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.00 Mean target$18.50 High · most bullish analyst$23.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.0020% Nashik disruption exceeds the announced range, new-product revenue misses the USD 450 million floor, restructuring benefits arrive slowly, or pipeline decisions disappoint. These outcomes would weaken confidence in sustainable growth despite the diversified portfolio and capital returns. The price target is an independent research scenario. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.5057% Matches the consensus meanResults finish around the raised guidance midpoints, Greater China and new launches offset softer markets and Nashik disruption, and leverage remains within the stated long-term range. Bull CaseUpside scenario $23.0023% Revenue and adjusted EBITDA finish near or above the upper ends of guidance, new-product revenue approaches the USD 550 million upper target, Nashik disruption remains contained, and regulatory milestones strengthen confidence in the innovative and value-added portfolio. The price target is an independent research scenario rather than a reported analyst consensus. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |