Viasat Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Viasat Inc

VSATNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryCommunication Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.50

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $70.38Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $9.7B

Enterprise Value $13.7B

Shares Outstanding 140.3M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Viasat has reached an important capacity inflection: ViaSat-3 F3 entered revenue-generating service across Asia-Pacific on August 31, 2026, while F2 was in final in-orbit testing for the Americas. The Q1 FY2027 cash result and lower net leverage support the deleveraging thesis, and the PTS-G production award strengthens the defense opportunity. Offsetting these merits, Q1 revenue and adjusted EBITDA declined year over year, F2 execution remains unfinished. A Hold recommendation therefore balances improving capacity and cash-generation prospects against deployment, monetization, and leverage execution risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$49.00

Mean target$101.44

High · most bullish analyst$140.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$49.0020%

F2 service entry or customer activation is delayed, new F3 capacity monetizes more slowly than expected, and the Q1 year-over-year pressure in revenue and adjusted EBITDA persists. Free cash flow would then fall below the FY2027 outlook and the pace of deleveraging would weaken.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$101.4450%

Matches the consensus mean

F3 monetization builds gradually, F2 enters service after completing final testing, and Viasat delivers approximately its FY2027 free-cash-flow outlook while defense programs provide diversification.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$140.0030%

F3 capacity ramps rapidly in Asia-Pacific mobility markets, F2 enters service without further delay, defense backlog converts on schedule, and free cash flow exceeds the approximately $180 million FY2027 outlook. This combination would strengthen deleveraging and demonstrate that ViaSat-3 capacity can produce attractive incremental economics.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

ViaSat-3 F3 entered commercial service in Asia-Pacific on August 31, 2026, beginning revenue-generating operations for a satellite designed to deliver more than one terabit per second of throughput.
Q1 FY2027 free cash flow excluding non-recurring items was $72 million, up 19% year over year, while net leverage declined to approximately 3.2 times trailing adjusted EBITDA.
Viasat received a prime production award for the U.S. Space Force PTS-G Swarm 1 program, including satellite delivery and five years of operations and sustainment services.

Key Investment Risks

ViaSat-3 F2 remained in final in-orbit testing as of August 31, 2026, leaving the Americas capacity expansion exposed to remaining testing, integration, and service-entry execution.
Q1 FY2027 revenue declined approximately 1% year over year and adjusted EBITDA declined 7%, showing that capacity expansion had not yet translated into consolidated growth.
Net leverage of approximately 3.2 times trailing adjusted EBITDA remains material, making sustained free-cash-flow delivery important to the thesis.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.