VF Corp Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel Manufacturing Beta (adjusted)1.38 Intrinsic Value $23.67median of 6 methods · middle span $18-$27based on filings through 28 Mar 2026 Market Price $14.06Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 68% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+68%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.5B Enterprise Value $8.2B Shares Outstanding 395.9M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary VF Corp has reached a critical operational inflection point in fiscal 2026, returning to full-year revenue growth for the first time in three years and successfully executing major portfolio actions (such as the divestitures of Supreme and Dickies) to pay down debt. While the core Outdoor segment (led by The North Face and Altra) remains highly resilient and continues to drive profitability, the overall investment case is balanced by persistent structural weakness and execution risks surrounding the turnaround of the flagship Vans brand. Consequently, the stock appears fairly valued at current levels, reflecting a balanced risk-reward profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$13.00 Mean target$18.77 High · most bullish analyst$40.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $13.9315% The Vans brand turnaround fails to gain traction, leading to prolonged market share losses. Simultaneously, escalating global tariff pressures and geopolitical conflicts in EMEA squeeze gross margins, while high debt levels continue to limit financial flexibility and increase equity volatility. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.7760% Matches the consensus meanVF Corp continues its steady, moderate recovery path. The North Face, Timberland, and Altra maintain low-to-mid single-digit growth, offsetting a slow stabilization process at Vans. Operating margins expand gradually toward the 8% target in FY27, supported by ongoing cost-saving initiatives under the 'Reinvent' transformation program, while leverage is managed down systematically. Bull CaseUpside scenario $25.0025% A rapid and successful product-led turnaround of the Vans brand, combined with stronger-than-expected wholesale demand in the Americas, drives significant operating leverage. Accelerated debt repayment from strong free cash flow generation allows VF Corp to achieve its 2.5x leverage target ahead of schedule, prompting a valuation re-rating toward historical premium multiples. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |