Vestis Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryRental & Leasing Services Beta (adjusted)1.07 Intrinsic Value $12.77median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $13.36Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.8B Enterprise Value $2.8B Shares Outstanding 133.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Feb 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Vestis Corp is transitioning from a post-spinoff compounder story to a complex operational turnaround under the leadership of CEO Jim Barber. While Q2 2026 results demonstrated early signs of margin recovery and sequential Adjusted EBITDA growth driven by aggressive cost discipline, top-line revenue remains under pressure. High net leverage of 4.83x and declining customer retention present significant risks, making the stock a 'show-me' story that warrants a cautious Hold stance until sustained top-line growth and deleveraging are achieved. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$9.30 Mean target$13.00 High · most bullish analyst$17.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $9.3020% The bear case is triggered if the turnaround plan stalls, customer churn accelerates below 91%, and high fixed costs compress margins. With net leverage at 4.83x, weak interest coverage could lead to financial distress or dilutive capital raises if free cash flow generation falters. Base CaseCentral scenario $13.0050% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes gradual operational improvements with cost-saving initiatives offsetting top-line flat-to-negative growth. Leverage remains elevated but manageable, and customer retention stabilizes around 91-92%. Valuation multiples remain constrained by the high debt load and execution risks, keeping the stock trading near its current levels. Bull CaseUpside scenario $17.0030% The bull case rests on successful execution of the $75 million annual cost-saving plan and route densification ('Physics of Density') led by CEO Jim Barber. If Vestis can stabilize customer retention, improve plant productivity, and expand margins toward peer levels, the significant valuation discount relative to Cintas and UniFirst could trigger substantial multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |