Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.53 Intrinsic Value $495.09median of 6 methods · middle span $396-$824based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $522.81Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $132.5B Enterprise Value $128.4B Shares Outstanding 254.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Vertex combines durable cystic-fibrosis leadership with emerging contributions from ALYFTREK, JOURNAVX, and CASGEVY. Second-quarter 2026 revenue grew 12% year over year to approximately $3.33 billion, while povetacicept produced positive Phase 3 interim results and has a November 30, 2026 FDA action date. These strengths are balanced by continued dependence on the CF franchise, binary regulatory and commercialization execution, and the pending Crinetics acquisition. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$350.00 Mean target$563.12 High · most bullish analyst$672.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $350.0023% Povetacicept encounters regulatory or launch setbacks, newer-product uptake is insufficient to offset CF concentration, or the Crinetics transaction is delayed and increases execution demands without timely pipeline benefits. Base CaseCentral scenario $563.1258% Matches the consensus meanCF demand remains durable, ALYFTREK, JOURNAVX, and CASGEVY make progressively larger contributions, and povetacicept advances through the FDA review without a material delay. The pending Crinetics transaction closes with manageable integration. Bull CaseUpside scenario $672.0019% Povetacicept receives timely approval and launches successfully, newer products continue broadening revenue beyond CF, and the Crinetics transaction closes and adds a productive endocrine-development platform. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |