Vermilion Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas E&P Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $8.01median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $11.39Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 30% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.7B Shares Outstanding 153.9M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) presents a balanced risk-reward profile as of mid-2026. The company has demonstrated robust operational execution, with Q1 2026 production of 125,618 boe/d exceeding expectations and trending toward the top end of its full-year guidance. However, its strategic pivot toward natural gas (projected at 70% of 2026 production) has muted near-term cash flow upside relative to liquids-heavy peers. Furthermore, while its diversified international footprint (particularly in Europe) offers premium pricing exposure, it also introduces operational complexities such as cyclone-related downtime in Australia and significant non-cash earnings volatility from hedging programs (evidenced by a C$286 million unrealized derivative loss in Q1 2026). Debt reduction remains on track with a year-end net debt target of C$1.1 billion, supporting a stable dividend yield of approximately 3.3%. Overall, the stock's strong performance over the past year limits further immediate multiple expansion, justifying a neutral stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged weak natural gas pricing, further weather-related operational disruptions in Australia, or delays in European development projects. Continued hedging at low price thresholds could lock in underperformance, while persistent non-cash derivative losses continue to weigh heavily on GAAP net income. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Vermilion successfully achieves the upper end of its 2026 production guidance (118,000 to 122,000 boe/d) and completes the integration of its newly acquired German assets in H2 2026. Natural gas prices stabilize, and the company continues its steady debt reduction toward the C$1.1 billion target, maintaining its quarterly dividend of C$0.135 per share. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |