Verisign Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Verisign Inc

VRSNNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Beta (adjusted)0.80

Intrinsic Value $252.42median of 5 methods · middle span $246-$483based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $282.01Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $25.5B

Shares Outstanding 90.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Verisign combines a highly recurring registry model with improving domain demand, contractual pricing capacity, very high operating leverage and disciplined capital returns. The second quarter produced 179.1 million .com and .net registrations, a record 12.7 million new registrations, 6.0% revenue growth and raised 2026 guidance. The offset is substantial concentration in regulated registry franchises, exposure to changes in domain demand, and the operational and cybersecurity burden of running critical internet infrastructure.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$270.00

Mean target$318.00

High · most bullish analyst$355.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$270.0020%

New-registration demand normalizes sharply, renewal or domain-base growth weakens, and concentration in .com and .net magnifies the effect. A material infrastructure incident, adverse registry-contract development or tighter pricing constraints would further impair the durability investors assign to cash flows.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$318.0055%

Matches the consensus mean

Verisign delivers near the raised 2026 revenue and domain-base guidance, while pricing, renewal economics and capital returns support continued per-share expansion. Growth moderates after the record registration quarter, and .web contributes only gradually.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$355.0025%

Sustained registrar activity and AI-enabled website creation keep registrations and renewals above the raised outlook, contractual pricing compounds revenue, .web develops into a meaningful additional registry, and repurchases amplify per-share growth. This outcome assumes the current demand acceleration persists without a material DNS, cybersecurity or regulatory disruption.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The .com and .net base reached 179.1 million registrations in the second quarter of 2026, with 12.7 million new registrations and positive sequential base growth.
Second-quarter revenue increased 6.0% year over year to $435 million, while operating income rose to $296 million.
Management raised full-year guidance, continued returning more than free cash flow through dividends and repurchases, and obtained delegation of the .web top-level domain.

Key Investment Risks

Economic value remains concentrated in the .com and .net registry franchises and their governing agreements, creating regulatory, contractual and pricing-policy exposure.
The record pace of new registrations may not persist; weaker registrations or renewals can reverse domain-base momentum.
Verisign operates critical DNS infrastructure, making cybersecurity, service availability and operational resilience central to the investment case.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.