Vera Therapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $32.29Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $2.3B Enterprise Value $2.4B Shares Outstanding 72.2M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Vera Therapeutics is a late-stage biotechnology company transitioning to a commercial-stage profile, anchored by its lead candidate, atacicept, for IgA Nephropathy (IgAN). With a critical PDUFA date of July 7, 2026, and an accelerated path toward full FDA approval aligned with the FDA for Q3 2026 eGFR analysis, Vera is highly positioned to capture a significant share of the multi-billion-dollar IgAN market. Despite rising cash burn and intense competition from Otsuka's Voyxact, Vera's robust cash position of $596.8 million provides a solid runway through launch. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$34.00 Mean target$77.14 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $34.00 The FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or delays the approval of atacicept on July 7, 2026. Alternatively, the accelerated eGFR analysis in Q3 2026 fails to show clear differentiation or statistical significance, delaying the path to full approval and allowing competitors to capture the market. Base CaseCentral scenario $77.14 Matches the consensus meanAtacicept receives FDA approval by the PDUFA date of July 7, 2026, and launches in mid-2026. The Q3 2026 eGFR analysis is positive and supports a supplemental BLA filing in Q4 2026. Commercial uptake is steady but faces competitive headwinds from established therapies and Otsuka's Voyxact, with the stock moving toward the consensus target. Bull CaseUpside scenario $100.00 Atacicept receives accelerated FDA approval on July 7, 2026, followed by a highly successful commercial launch in mid-2026. The accelerated eGFR analysis in Q3 2026 yields outstanding results, enabling a supplemental BLA submission in Q4 2026 and full approval in 2027. PIONEER Phase 2 basket trial results demonstrate strong efficacy, expanding atacicept's addressable market to other autoimmune kidney diseases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |